The 2024 French Real Estate Market Report, released on December 16, 2024, by Les Notaires de France, provides an in-depth analysis of the year’s performance and projections for early 2025. The report highlights a continued decline in transaction volumes, stabilizing property prices, and shifting market dynamics driven by political and economic uncertainties.

Market Overview: Stabilization After a Turbulent Period

After a sharp downturn beginning in mid-2022, the French real estate market appears to be stabilizing. Monetary policy adjustments and improved borrowing conditions sparked optimism, but political uncertainty following the dissolution of the National Assembly tempered this progress.

Key Market Figures:

• Transactions: 780,000 transactions from September 2023 to September 2024, marking a 17% drop from 2023 (935,000 transactions) and a more substantial decrease from 2022 (1.13 million transactions).
• Price Changes: 3.9% decline for old apartments and houses in metropolitan France.
• 2025 Projections: Prices are expected to stabilize with modest declines: -1.2% in France, -0.4% in Provinces, and -2.5% in Île-de-France.

Despite ongoing challenges, the end of 2024 showed signs of a gradual return in buyer confidence, driven by favorable interest rates and price stabilization.

Price Trends: Declining but Stabilizing

From September 2023 to September 2024, property prices fell -3.9% for both apartments and houses. However, toward the latter part of 2024, the decline slowed, indicating a potential market shift.

2025 Projections:

• Metropolitan France: Prices expected to decline by -1.2% year-on-year.
• Provinces: Prices expected to remain relatively stable at -0.4%.
• Île-de-France: Prices expected to decline by -2.5% year-on-year.

The stabilization suggests the market is nearing its « landing point » after a period of volatility and uncertainty.

Purchasing Power: Small but Significant Improvements

For the first time since 2021, real estate purchasing power improved, thanks to favorable borrowing conditions and price adjustments.

Key Purchasing Power Figures (as of September 2024):

• Old apartments (metropolitan France): Buyers can afford a 55 m² apartment, up from 54 m² in 2023 (+1 m²).
• Old houses (nationwide): Buyers can afford a 92 m² house, up from 89 m² in 2023 (+3 m²).

This reflects a +4% gain in purchasing power on an annual basis, driven by falling property prices and more accessible mortgage lending.

Land Market: A Dramatic Slowdown

The market for buildable land experienced a drastic decline in transaction volumes, falling from 75,000 in Q2 2023 to 43,000 in Q3 2024, a sharp drop of nearly 50%. The pace of decline accelerated from -26% in Q2 2023 to -39% in Q1 2024 and has since remained low.

This slowdown reflects the broader challenges faced in new housing development, mirroring trends in the existing home market.

The « Green Value » of Properties

France’s environmental regulations are impacting property demand. Properties with poor energy efficiency ratings (classes F and G) now face restrictions on their usage, including rental eligibility.

Key Shifts in Demand (2023-2024):

• F & G properties: These properties accounted for 17% of total sales in 2023 but dropped to 13% in Q3 2024.
• A & B properties: These energy-efficient properties increased from 6% of total sales in 2023 to 8% in Q3 2024.

Energy efficiency labels now have a direct impact on property prices, with homes rated A or B commanding price premiums. This trend is particularly noticeable in older houses, where energy upgrades can significantly boost value.

Conclusion: Why 2025 Could Be the Perfect Year to Buy Property in France

All signs point to 2025 being a golden opportunity for property buyers, driven by stabilizing prices, improved mortgage access, increased purchasing power, and rising demand for energy-efficient homes.

For first-time buyers and seasoned investors, 2025 presents an opportunity to capitalize on affordability, stable prices, and a balanced market. If you’ve been waiting for the right time to buy, 2025 might be your year to act.